Week 5 Picks with Dynasty Sneako
Seasoned gambler Nicolas Keels (AKA Dynasty Sneako) gives you his thoughts on the Week 5 games.
Thank you for taking the time to read my weekly picks article. My name is Nicolas Keels and I have been an avid college and professional football fan my entire life. I started my “gambling” interest with fantasy football about 12 years ago and that interest has moved into sports wagering over the past few years. I hope you enjoy the article and it helps you with making your wagering decisions! You can follow me on Twitter, @dynastysneako.
How this works: I will briefly review each matchup and give you my decision on how I would bet this game - either the matchup or the combined points total. I will also throw out a couple of parlays I will be placing myself. Look for a short player prop write up once those lines are released later in the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Favorite: Buccaneers - 5.5 points
Over/under: 44 points
Last week we saw 2 opposite story lines from these teams. Brady had his best game as a Buccaneer while Nick Foles looked just as bad as Mitch Trubisky. I expect much of the same this week.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick(s): Buccaneers -5.5, over 44 total combined points
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Favorite: Cardinals - 7 points
Over/under: 47 points
The Cardinals are a tough team to read so far this year. They’ve looked great in 2 of their games but out of whack in their other 2. The Jets are a dumpster fire, and will continue to be so until Gase is a distant memory. This decision is harder than it should be as I thought the Cardinals -3 over the Panthers last week was a layup - but I would never advise you to bet on the Jets.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Cardinals -7
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Favorite: Falcons - 2.5 points
Over/under: 53.5 points
The Panthers may be a little better than we thought, at least on offense. The Falcons have to win eventually, right?
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Panthers +2.5 (I would even be OK going Panthers money line on this game)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Favorite: Ravens - 13.5 points
Over/under: 51 points
We’ve seen promise from Joe Burrow so far this year, but this is a tough task. Still, 13.5 points is no easy job, even for Lamar Jackson. I’m going to pivot away from the point spread and look at the over/under here. The current implied point total is 18.5 for the Bengals and 32.5 for the Ravens. Burrow has shown he can put up decent numbers already this year, and I think he will continue to do so this week - even if I think they lose this game.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: over 51 total combined points
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Favorite: Texans - 6 points
Over/under: 54 points
Bill O’Brien is now gone. How do the Houston Texans respond? I tend to think they show up to play, especially Deshaun Watson. It’s a pretty hefty 54 point over/under, and Houston is a pretty big favorite at 6 points. I think the Jaguars will keep it closer than the 6 point spread. I’d stay away from this game if I could.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Jaguars +6
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Favorite: Chiefs - 12.5 points
Over/under: 56.5 points
The Chiefs look unbeatable, and I don’t expect that to change this week. Still, 12.5 points is a massive spread. I’m still taking the Chiefs to cover until they show any sign of slowing down. They still managed to cover last week against a Patriots team that had a good gameplan in place.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Chiefs -12.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Football Team
Favorite: Rams - 7.5 points
Over/under: 45.5 points
The Rams are a better team than what they showed last week. I expect them to win big against the Washington Football Team. Keep an eye on Chase Young. If he is unable to go, I feel even more confident that the Rams will cover the spread. Another thing to look at - Washington has shown comeback ability in garbage time. I like to over here as well.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick(s): Rams -7.5, over 45.5 total combined points
Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Favorite: Steelers - 7 points
Over/under: 43.5 points
The Steelers laid dormant last week because of the Titans Covid-19 scare. Let’s not forget they did not look great the weeks prior against the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans. Still, the Eagles went down to the wire with an absolutely decimated 49ers team, and they are decimated by injuries themselves. I don’t have confidence that the Eagles will be able to move the ball against this Steelers Defense.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Steelers -7
Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns
Favorite: Colts - 2 points
Over/under: 47 points
This is easily the best game of the week on paper. Cleveland leads the NFL in almost every statistical rushing category. The Colts have a great D line. The Browns O-line vs the Colts D-line is the premier matchup of this game and many would assume this would determine the outcome of the game. The Browns opportunistic defense gets a banged up, shaky Colts offense though, which I believe will be the deciding factor.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Browns +2
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Favorite: Cowboys - 9.5 points
Over/under: 54 points
The Giants might be the worst team in football. The Daniel Jones experience should be over after this year. I expect an angry Cowboys team to right the ship here.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Cowboys -9.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Favorite: Seahawks - 7 points
Over/under: 57.5 points
This is the largest over/under of the week. The Vikings have shown signs of life the last 2 weeks after struggling to begin the season. Still, Mr. Unlimited looks like the clear early season MVP candidate and he should continue his dominance this week. You may want to bet the under here just based on principal of it being the highest point total of the week (I never bet the under ;) ).
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: Seahawks -7
Los Angeles Chargers @ New Orleans Saints
Favorite: Rams - 8 points
Over/under: 51.5 points
We should see the return of Michael Thomas this week, which the Saints offense desperately needs. I’ll take the Saints but I’m not confident they will cover the 8 point spread. I’m instead pivoting to the 51.5 point over/under. I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far from Justin Herbert and I think he will at least keep this close. If Tyrod Taylor is back at QB for the Chargers, smash the under and the Saints to cover the spread.
Dynasty Sneako’s pick: over 51.5 total combined points
Week 5 Parlay
Buccaneers -5.5, Panthers +2.5, Cowboys -9.5
$10 bet wins you $70.77
This is one of my favorite parlays this week. These are 3 of the games I am most confident about. The nice thing about the 3-leg parlay is that it takes a relatively small monetary commitment to pay out a nice total if it hits.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-gambler.